We are one week into the Football World Cup and I thought it might be interesting to assess the correlation, if any, between a nation’s stock market and macroeconomic picture to their form at the 2018 tournament and whether this could give us an indication of a possible winner. We will start by looking at
“Not seeing a tsunami or an economic event coming is excusable; building something fragile to them is not.” [Nassim Nicholas Taleb] After an extended period of benign equity market conditions, February 2018 saw the return of volatility. Rather like seismologists, portfolio managers are continually monitoring for signals of a ‘financial earthquake’, but predicting the
Whilst accredited as being an old Chinese proverb, this phrase was first used by an influential British statesman, Sir Austin Chamberlain in 1936 referring to the “(G)rave injury to collective security by Germany’s violation of the Treaty of Locarno.” His quote “ It is not so long ago that a member of the Diplomatic Body
“Trade wars are good and easy to win” (Donald Trump, March 2nd, 2018) In 2009, in an effort to slow the growth in imports that the United Steelworkers’ union blamed for thousands of American job losses, President Obama approved a near nine-fold increase, from 4% to 35%, in the US’s tariff on Chinese-manufactured car tyres.
I recently returned from an investment forum hosted in London, at which various fund managers and investment professionals presented on technology and innovation as a disruptor within industries and economies. One presentation was of particular interest, not least because it combines two themes we have implemented within our private client models: technology and India. We
The current period of global market weirdness with next-to-zero interest rates, stubbornly low inflation, low-ish growth and asset price increases has been with us for nearly a decade since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) which culminated in late 2008. Until very recently, bond yields persisted in their trends towards zero and, in some cases, beyond,