As we enter May 2015, 2014 seems a distant memory and 2016 is fast approaching. An old adage in the investment game is “Sell in May and buy again on St Ledger day (in September)“, which many “boohoo” as a conspiracy theory. However, over the past 100 years, a remarkably large percentage of equity market gains have materialised in the period from September to May and then very little from May to September, which does, statistically speaking, stack up. The problem with most theories is that no one actually has a 100 year time horizon and it may not even work over the next five years.
In this issue we look at the UK Election with James Sullivan. James works with Martin Gray at Coram Asset Management, the appointed manager of our MitonOptimal Offshore Special Situations Fund. Not an easy time for England facing the possibility of the shots being called from Scotland!
Roeloff Horne looks at some of the different components of our South African Asset Allocation and one of his underlying managers, Nolan Wapenaar, talks about African Fixed Interest which is certainly something different.
Shaun McDade and Joanne Baynham give us the Global Asset Allocation tour and an asset class we favour, Japanese Equities, respectively. After the fantastic run we have had in markets over recent times, it is certainly easy to “Sell in May” but we continue to favour a diversified portfolios keeping an eye on the short term downside.
Finally, the MitonOptimal team welcomes James Downie in Cape Town. Although he queried my use of the word “veteran” in his press release, he is undoubtedly an experienced campaigner and major coup for heading up our institutional asset consulting business in South Africa. Experience is a valuable commodity in the investment business and something MitonOptimal certainly value, alongside academic and quantitative prowess. Intuition is as important as mathematical models or economic forecasts. James has already jumped out of the starting gates and we are very excited about this addition to the team.
Enjoy the read and please contact us if we can help you in any way.
Scott Campbell
Group Managing Director & Chief Investment Officer
