It is often said that the most dangerous words in investment are “This time it’s different”. Indeed, long-term economic and market cycles, the principle of mean reversion and the generally accepted tenet that, while history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it certainly rhymes, are all central to the philosophy of most asset managers. I can vividly
The unintended consequences of trade barriers. “Obviously it’s not meant to be taken literally; it refers to any manufacturers of dairy products” – Monty Python, Life of Brian As President Trump sets off trade clashes with countries across the world, traditional US business partners move towards retaliatory barriers to American goods. For US cheesemakers, the
The quote “A Solution still seeking a Problem.” is taken from the Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2018 and summarises succinctly theirs, and a growing number of other institutions’, view of Blockchain technology. Putting it another way, the technology involved in Blockchain is both impressive and potentially useful, if we could only find a suitable use
We are one week into the Football World Cup and I thought it might be interesting to assess the correlation, if any, between a nation’s stock market and macroeconomic picture to their form at the 2018 tournament and whether this could give us an indication of a possible winner. We will start by looking at
“Not seeing a tsunami or an economic event coming is excusable; building something fragile to them is not.” [Nassim Nicholas Taleb] After an extended period of benign equity market conditions, February 2018 saw the return of volatility. Rather like seismologists, portfolio managers are continually monitoring for signals of a ‘financial earthquake’, but predicting the
Whilst accredited as being an old Chinese proverb, this phrase was first used by an influential British statesman, Sir Austin Chamberlain in 1936 referring to the “(G)rave injury to collective security by Germany’s violation of the Treaty of Locarno.” His quote “ It is not so long ago that a member of the Diplomatic Body
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